TENVARIS · Internal — INQDATA Live System

FDRI Score

—

F(X_t)

—

Fragility score

Signal

—

Confidence

—

Hedge Structure

—

Active today

Cumul. Strategy

—

Day 0

vs Buy & Hold

—

Outperformance

Cumulative Returns

FDRI History

Last 7 Days

Date	FDRI	Regime	Signal	Hedge	Strat Ret	B&H Ret

Latest Trade Recommendation

—

Payoff Profile

Trade Recommendation History

Date	Signal	Regime	FDRI	Structure	PUT Strike	Expiry	Up	Down	Carry

FDRI Gauge

NormalOverheatSystemicCrash

Normal Overheat Systemic Crash Setup

HMM Regime Probabilities

Latent State Vector X_t

F(X_t) = —

Simulate Market Conditions

VIX Level18

HY Spread (pp)3.5pp

Yield Curve1.20pp

Credit Growth YoY4.0%

Computed Signal

0.31 WAIT

Normal · 1.0x

Days Active

0

Since —

Ann. Return

—

annualised

Sharpe

—

rolling

Max Drawdown

—

since inception

Capital

$1,000,000

hypothetical $1M

vs B&H Alpha

—

cumulative

Strategy vs Benchmark

Drawdown Chart

Rolling Sharpe Ratio (30-day — activates after 30 trading days)

Monthly Returns Heatmap (activates after first full month)

Full Track Record

Date	Strat Ret	B&H Ret	Cumul.	Capital	Signal	Regime	FDRI

■ Active

Macro Planet

FRED · Yield curve · Credit · Funding

■ Active

Narrative Planet

SEC EDGAR · Stress language drift

■ Active

Constraint Planet

CD3 divergence · VIX vs credit

○ Phase 2

Housing Planet

Bloomberg required

○ Phase 2

Credit Planet

Bloomberg required

○ Phase 2

Derivatives Planet

Bloomberg required

CD3 — Constraint Divergence (2008 Signal)

CD3 = (-VIX_momentum_13W + Credit_growth_13W) / 2

The 2008 pre-crisis signal: VIX momentum declining while bank credit growth accelerates. CD3 above 0.60 = constraint break.

Data Quality Monitor

Data Source Status

Real-time status of all data sources. Updated daily after market close.

Loading...

Last Run Summary

Loading...

Planet Signal Scores

Loading...

Performance Comparison

Back-Test vs Live Track Record

Walk-Forward validated back-test (2019–2024) compared against live system performance.

Metric	Back-Test (OOS 2019-2024)	Live System	Status
Loading...

Live Daily Returns

Back-Test Regime Distribution

Normal~45%

Overheat~35%

Systemic~15%

Crash Setup~5%

Live Regime Distribution

Loading...

NOTE

Live track record started April 9, 2026. Statistical significance requires minimum 90 trading days. Current live period represents an unusual post-crash recovery rally — not representative of normal market conditions. Back-test used walk-forward validation to prevent overfitting.

Investor Tear Sheet

Generate PDF

Professional 1-page investor tear sheet with live data. Download and send via email.

Contains

✓ Live FDRI Score + Regime
✓ Back-Test Performance
✓ Engine Architecture
✓ Regulatory Status
✓ Contact Information

Instructions

1. Click Generate + Download
2. PDF downloads automatically
3. Attach to email for investor
4. Never share server URL directly

System Information

Parameter	Value
System	INQDATA v1.0.0
FDRI Coefficients	α=0.08 β=0.42 γ=0.22 δ=0.14 ε=0.14
Thresholds	0.309 / 0.371 / 0.470
Signal θ	0.20
Data Sources	FRED · Yahoo · Finnhub · ECB
Calibration	2004-01-01 → 2014-12-31
Server	178.104.174.80 · Hetzner NBG1
Active Planets	Macro · Narrative · Constraint
Daily Run	Mon–Fri 19:00 UTC

Live Data Status

Loading...

VIX Spot

—

Current

VIX 3M

—

3-month implied

Term Structure

—

SKEW Index

—

Tail risk

VVIX

—

Vol of Vol

Stress Level

—

Aggregate score

VIX Term Structure

SKEW + VVIX History

What These Signals Mean

VIX Term Structure

Contango — VIX3M > VIX Spot. Normal, calm market. Future uncertainty higher than present.

Backwardation — VIX Spot > VIX3M. Stress signal. Immediate fear elevated. Often precedes sharp moves.

SKEW Index

Measures cost of OTM puts vs calls. High SKEW = institutions buying tail protection aggressively.

> 140 = EXTREME — smart money hedging hard
120-140 = ELEVATED
< 110 = Complacency risk

VVIX

Volatility of VIX itself. Measures uncertainty about future volatility.

> 120 = Extreme uncertainty
90-120 = Elevated
< 90 = Calm

Derivatives Signal History

Date	VIX	VIX 3M	SKEW	VVIX	Term Structure	Aggregate	Stress

Planet Score

—

Filings Today

—

10-Q + 8-K

Alerts

—

HIGH or CRITICAL

Banks Monitored

8

JPM BAC GS MS C WFC BK STT

Forms

10-Q · 8-K

Quarterly + Ad-hoc

Last Update

—

UTC

Bank Stress Scores — Latest Filings

Category Breakdown — Stress Types

What We Monitor

Credit Stress

deterioration · delinquency · charge-off · provision · impairment · writedown · credit loss

Liquidity

liquidity concerns · funding pressure · repo · short-term funding · funding stress

Structural

covenant · restructuring · regulatory concern · capital requirement · stress test

Filing Analysis — All Banks

Ticker	Form	Filing Date	Score	vs Baseline	Alert	Top Stress Words

Signal Interpretation

The Narrative Planet monitors language drift in SEC filings from the 8 largest US banks. When financial institutions begin using more stress-related language in their regulatory filings — before problems appear in market prices — it is often a leading indicator of systemic pressure building.

Score interpretation:

0.00–0.30 = Normal baseline language · 0.30–0.45 = Elevated stress language · 0.45–0.60 = High stress · Above 0.60 = Critical — significant deviation from baseline

The delta (vs baseline) is often more meaningful than the absolute score — a sudden increase of +0.15 in a single quarter is a stronger signal than a persistently elevated score.