T.
TENVARIS.
Live Signal Performance System FAQ Request Access →
Live Engine · Pre-Launch · Audit Trail Active

We navigate financial markets.
Not predict them.

Tenvaris is a dynamic financial system architecture that interprets markets as evolving state-driven environments — detecting structural transitions before they manifest in price behavior.

Request Access How It Works
Live System Status

Updated daily after market close · Independently verifiable via GitHub

FDRI Score
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Fragility Index
Regime
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Market Structure
Signal
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Engine Output
Last Update
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UTC
Audit Hash
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Verify on GitHub →
Signal generated daily after market close · Not investment advice · For qualified investors only
Back-Test Results

Validated performance
across market regimes

Walk-forward validated. Out-of-sample test period 2019–2024. Calibrated on 2004–2014 data.

MetricTenvarisBuy & Hold
Annual Return32.9%13.9%
Sharpe Ratio2.130.80
Max Drawdown-9.3%-28.6%
Calmar Ratio3.540.48
Crisis Return+50.5%-17.9%
During COVID-19 Crash
+50.5%
vs S&P 500: -17.9%
Max Drawdown
-9.3%
vs S&P 500: -28.6%
Sharpe Ratio
2.13
vs S&P 500: 0.80
Walk-Forward Validation
Train: 2004–2014 · Val: 2015–2018
OOS Test: 2019–2024
System Behavior During Historical Crisis Periods
Period
Event
Tenvaris
S&P 500
2020 Q1
COVID-19 Crash
+50.5%
-17.9%
2022 Q1-Q4
Fed Rate Shock
+12.3%
-19.4%
2018 Q4
Volatility Spike
+8.7%
-13.5%
2019–2024
Full OOS Period
+32.9% p.a.
+13.9% p.a.
* Back-test results. Walk-forward validated. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Live Track Record

Real capital deployment
since April 9, 2026

Transparent live performance from the hypothetical $1M deployment. Daily signals are hashed and committed to GitHub before market close — fully verifiable.

Days Live
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Cumulative
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Capital
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Max Drawdown
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⚠️
Important Context
This represents 10 trading days during an unusual post-crash recovery rally — a period where structurally hedged strategies are expected to underperform pure long equity exposure.
Statistical validity requires 90+ trading days. The back-test (2019–2024) above provides the validated performance baseline, including crisis scenarios where the strategy generated +50.5% during COVID-19 while S&P 500 fell -17.9%.
Date Regime Tenvaris S&P 500 Capture
Loading live data...
Note on Statistical Significance
Live track record statistics require a minimum of 90 trading days to be considered statistically significant. Current performance reflects an unusual post-crash recovery period — not representative of long-term strategy behavior. Full back-test data above provides the validated performance benchmark.
System Logic

Three steps from
data to decision

01
Observe
The engine continuously ingests market data across five independent planetary modules — not as isolated indicators but as components of an evolving system state.
Prices & VolCredit SpreadsSEC FilingsFed TextDerivatives
02
Interpret
The INQDATA Engine infers latent system states using state-space models and Hidden Markov Models, evaluates structural fragility, and generates thousands of probabilistic trajectories.
FDRI ScoreHMM RegimesKalman FilterMonte CarloBayesian
03
Navigate
Structured signals translate system intelligence into disciplined capital decisions. The engine waits for structural asymmetry — deploying adaptive options structures calibrated to the current regime.
ACT / WAITZero-Cost CollarLong StraddleLong VolAudited
The FDRI — Financial Dynamic Risk Index

The FDRI is the engine's primary output — a normalized score between 0 and 1 measuring structural fragility across five weighted dimensions.

F(X) = 0.08·L + 0.42·V + 0.22·C + 0.14·Q + 0.14·LCRI
L — Liquidity Stress8%
V — Volatility Regime42%
C — Credit Stress22%
Q — Leverage Pressure14%
LCRI — Contractual Risk14%
Normal <0.309Overheat 0.309–0.371Systemic 0.371–0.470Crash >0.470
Adaptive Hedge Structure by Regime
Regime FDRI Range Structure Carry p.a. Multiplier
Normal<0.309Zero-Cost Collar~0.01%1.0x
Overheat0.309–0.371Partial Collar + Vol~0.04%1.5x
Systemic0.371–0.470Long Straddle + VIXY~0.09%2.0x
Crash Setup>0.470Pure Long Volatility~0.16%3.0x
System Architecture

Five planetary models.
One unified signal.

The INQDATA Engine integrates five independent analytical modules into a single, coherent decision framework.

Input
Market Data
→
Core
INQDATA Engine
→
Output
Signal
→
Execution
Portfolio
Macro
Derivatives
Narrative
Fed Text
SLOOS
Intellectual Foundation

Built on a century of
complex systems thinking

"Risk and uncertainty are fundamentally different phenomena. Markets operate largely within the realm of uncertainty — where underlying probabilities are unknown."
Frank Knight
Risk, Uncertainty and Profit — 1921
"Systems governed by deterministic laws can nevertheless behave in ways that are effectively unpredictable. Small differences in initial conditions produce vastly different outcomes."
Henri Poincaré
On the three-body problem — 1890
"Markets are not merely noisy statistical processes but complex structures shaped by nonlinear dynamics. Extreme movements occur far more frequently than traditional models predict."
Benoît Mandelbrot
The Misbehavior of Markets — 2004
"The most consequential events in complex systems are rare and difficult to predict — yet once they occur, they reshape the entire system. Position for their consequences, not their timing."
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Black Swan — 2007
The Core Shift
Prediction
Where will prices go?
What will happen next?
Statistical forecasting
Single-path thinking
→
Navigation
What state is the system in?
How might it evolve?
Structural interpretation
Probabilistic trajectories
Leadership

The people behind
the system

Tenvaris is an independent, founder-led initiative. The system is built from first principles — not shaped by industry conventions or institutional assumptions. Two founders contribute complementary expertise: strategic design and technical engineering.

NT
Founder & CEO
Nick Tyrone
Originator of the Tenvaris framework. Responsible for investment philosophy, strategic positioning, and the conceptual foundation of the system. Drives the intellectual architecture linking complex systems theory to capital allocation.
MH
Co-Founder & CTO
Maurice Hartmann
Architect of the INQDATA Engine. Responsible for the analytical infrastructure, data pipelines, and system operations. Translates the conceptual framework into working, auditable software — including the immutable hash-chain audit trail.
Organizational Structure

Distributed architecture.
Clear governance.

Tenvaris is designed as a multi-entity architecture separating intelligence, engineering, capital execution, and investor access. Entity registration currently in preparation — Phase 1 operates from unified founder structure.

Washington D.C.
Tenvaris Global Inc.
Holding company & governance framework · In Establishment
Chicago, Illinois
Tenvaris Capital LLC
Fund management & capital execution · In Establishment
New York, New York
Maurant Strategies LLC
Financial engineering & derivatives architecture · In Establishment
Connecticut
Bergdorf Advisory LLC
Investor relations & capital onboarding · In Establishment
Regulatory Framework

Structured for institutional
confidence

⚖️
ERA Registration — Phase 2
Preparing registration as Exempt Reporting Adviser under SEC framework. Designed for controlled growth with a capital cap of approximately $150M.
🔗
Immutable Audit Trail
Every signal is timestamped, hashed, and committed to a public GitHub repository. All decisions are verifiable before market events occur.
📋
Qualified Investors Only
Access restricted to qualified purchasers and accredited investors. Minimum investment requirements apply. Contact us for details.
Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions
from investors

What is the FDRI Score?
The Financial Dynamic Risk Index measures the structural fragility of the financial system. It combines liquidity stress, volatility regime, credit conditions, leverage, and contractual risk into a single normalized score between 0 and 1.
How often does the system generate signals?
The system evaluates conditions daily but generates actionable signals infrequently — typically 6-15 times per year. This is by design. The strategy focuses on structural transitions, not routine market fluctuations.
What makes this different from a traditional fund?
Traditional funds predict price movements. Tenvaris navigates system states. Rather than forecasting where markets will go, the engine interprets the structural configuration of the financial system and positions capital accordingly.
Is the back-test independently validated?
The back-test uses walk-forward validation — calibrated on 2004-2014 data, validated on 2015-2018, and tested out-of-sample on 2019-2024. The methodology is designed to prevent overfitting to historical data.
What happens during a market crash?
As structural fragility increases, the system automatically shifts to more protective options structures — from Partial Collar to Long Straddle to Pure Long Volatility. During COVID-19, the strategy returned +50.5% vs -17.9% for the S&P 500.
How can I verify the signals are not fabricated?
Every daily signal is committed to a public GitHub repository with a cryptographic hash and timestamp — before market events occur. The audit trail is publicly accessible and cannot be retroactively modified.
What is the minimum investment?
We are currently in Phase 1 validation. Capital commitments are evaluated individually. Please contact us via the Request Access form to discuss your specific situation and requirements.
What regulatory framework applies?
Tenvaris Capital LLC is in preparation for registration as an Exempt Reporting Adviser (ERA) under SEC regulation, with a planned capital cap of approximately $150M. Entity establishment is Phase 2 of the roadmap. The transition to full RIA or AIFM registration is a defined milestone as AUM grows.
Why does the system sometimes do nothing?
Inactivity is a feature, not a bug. The system is designed to wait for structural asymmetry — conditions where the potential upside significantly exceeds the downside. In stable environments, the engine preserves capital rather than deploying it into routine market noise.
Is this strategy correlated with traditional hedge funds?
The strategy is designed to be largely uncorrelated with traditional equity and fixed income. During structural stress events, the convex options structures create a distinctly different return profile — particularly during volatility spikes and market dislocations.
Request Access

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Access to the Tenvaris system is available to qualified investors. Complete the form below and we will be in touch within 48 hours.

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